Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
The laws of economics have proved fragile at best during the recession, with the exception of the one indisputable truth; “you cannot stop bankers from paying themselves bonuses”.
You could add to that “you cannot stop investment banks from making money” as would seem to be the case from Goldman Sachs’ reports of $45bn in revenues in 2009 – its second highest ever, after 2007. With similar figures from Morgan Stanley ($23.4bn) and US bank Wells Fargo ($88.7bn) the banking sector has certainly plenty to celebrate despite triggering a global economic recession not 18 months ago.
The reasons for the rapid return to party season are plain to see. Goldman’s unaudited accounts reveal it made $34bn from trading and investing in capital markets. It is this fearsome reputation in proprietary trading that led to its moniker of ‘the world’s largest hedge fund’. But in 2009 it was the fiscal stimuli of central banks, designed to stave off a recession triggered by the excessive speculation of banks and paid for by the taxpayer, which drove these profits. Barack Obama is right to be angry and his campaign to axe prop desks could gather global momentum.
Advertisement
It was party time for bankers in 2009 because equity and corporate bond markets were soaring and competitor market-makers – such as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns – had gone bust. Playing the music were central bankers, particularly the Bank of England’s Mervyn King, who injected £200bn into the system through his quantitative easing programme, keeping interest rates artificially low and prompting investors to pile into riskier markets. Meanwhile taxpayers were left footing the bill, propping up the worst affected banks and underwriting all of their ‘toxic assets’ to keep the money system afloat and keep bankers earning bonuses.
In the real world, disaster was averted and economies eventually dragged themselves out of recession – with the UK in last place. But as normal businesses struggled, investment banks which had triggered the crisis through their ill-advised sub-prime mortgage securities, basked in near-record earnings as capital markets came back to life way ahead of the rest of the economy.
Back in July, Rolling Stone magazine’s Matt Taibbi, colourfully depicted Goldman Sachs as a ‘vampire squid’ that sucks money out of the financial system wherever it is found. His point is clearer now than ever.
But as the UK is finally pulling itself out of recession, should pension funds get into the party mood?
Pension funds certainly have one thing in common with investment banks – they’ve done well out of the recovering capital markets. The average UK pension fund grew by 14 % in 2009, compared with a -13.8% return the previous year, according BNY Mellon Asset Servicing.
But while the economy may no longer be in decline, that does not mean it is about to boom. The OECD predicts that UK unemployment will reach 9.5% in 2011, with growth of just 1.2% this year and 2.2% next, as businesses cough and splutter their way back to life. Pension fund sponsors are by no means out of the woods, and under-funded schemes will remain on heightened insolvency alert well into next year.
More worryingly, inflation is creeping back into the system thanks in part to the £200bn of new money created by DJ Mervyn King’s quantitative easing disco. The Retail Price Index hit 2.4% in December. If this gets out of control pension liabilities will rocket.
In fact, the party could be over quicker than anyone imagines. King is about to stop buying gilts, and so put an end to the disco, because he realises the party is getting out of hand. Capital markets have risen too far too fast on the back of his free money, and he fears inflation more than anything. But without him manning the turntables, the yield on gilts can only rise – as must interest rates – and that would put pay to the stock market boom too. Investors are already wary of the equity rally – now at 50% since the March 2009 lows – and prices are fragile. Bad economic data, or any hint of a return to recession (the fabled ‘double dip’) would spark a second crash without the regular injection of proceeds from gilt investors selling up to King at inflated prices. Uniquely, commentators are pointing to a ‘bubble’ in equities and gilts at the same time. If King hits the alarm and quantitative easing ends too fast both markets will crash as soaring gilt yields tempt investors away from equities, while financing costs are hiked for all businesses.
It has been a good year for investment bank and pension fund investments alike. But the economy is still in dire straits and stock and bond markets remain at risk of collapse. Without DJ King to keep the discs spinning, the party could end abruptly for all.
